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is the change in global average temperature between two periods, is the change in forcing between the two periods, and is the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance, which is the rate of heat uptake of the climate system.

The oceans account for over 90% of the climate system heat uptake.

The results indicate that governments should subside fossil fuels by about 18 US$/tonne of CO, rather than impose carbon taxes.

Energy Balance Climate Sensitivity The most important parameter in determining the economic impact of climate change is the sensitivity of the climate to greenhouse gas emissions.

The two periods used for the analysis were 1859-18-2011.

He derived a new lower estimate of aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m.

The analysis gives the TCR best estimate at 1.21 °C with a likely range [17 – 83%] of 1.05 to 1.45 °C.

Energy balance estimates of ECS and TCR use these equations: , where F.

Ocean heat content is from Box 3.1, Figure 1 of AR5.

The likely 83% upper bound of ECS was reported by the IPCC in AR5 at 4.5 °C, but this drops to 2.45 °C when calculated with the AR5 reported forcings, and drops to only 1.8 °C when substituting the Stevens estimate of aerosol forcing.




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